The Soapbox | Where South Africans Speak Out

BY GARETH MORGAN

The negotiations that will plot the world’s new climate change framework are less than six months away. But you wouldn’t think so if you listened to President Jacob Zuma’s first “State of the Nation” address. This subject matter, on the mind of every President or Prime Minister worth his or her salt, did not feature in the President’s programme of action.

The closest he came to the topic was acknowledging that South Africa was a dry country and that it required urgent action “to mitigate adverse environmental changes and to ensure the provision of water to citizens.” He also said that the government would work to improve energy efficiency and the uptake of renewable energy. But where was the detail and how do these programmes relate to rejuvenating an economy that is in recession?

If this was an attempt by the President to introduce climate change into his address, he could have at least mentioned this human-induced phenomenon that has the potential to wreak disaster on Southern Africa by its name.

Climate change is not going to go away, hence President Zuma would do well not to cast himself as a denialist. . South Africa cannot afford to wait in responding to the challenges of climate change. The science suggests that Southern Africa is one of the most vulnerable regions in the world. Localised decreased run-off from rainfall, increased frequency of droughts and the change in the ranges of biodiversity all have the potential to undermine our economic growth and undermine this country’s attempts at poverty alleviation.

Much of the warming that will occur is already locked into the system meaning that adaptation to climate change is the initial priority. However, South Africa has one of the highest per capita CO2 emissions ratios in the world and therefore mitigation action is a necessity if South Africa is to be a responsible global player in stabilising the world’s climate and keeping global warming to no more than 2 °C.

There will be no binding emission reduction targets for South Africa at the Copenhagen Climate negotiations, but the developed world will expect some mitigation action from the likes of China, India, Brazil, South Africa and India. But what does President Zuma have to say about this?

It is not as if the previous administration did nothing to prepare South Africa for the response to the climate change challenge. The Long Term Mitigation Scenarios for South Africa clearly outline the various paths that South Africa can choose to follow. We know the dangers of the business-as-usual scenario and we understand what is required by science. The previous Minister of Environmental Affairs also started a gases inventory project and the biggest emitters are now encouraged to voluntarily report on their emissions. And the Climate Change Summit began the process of outlining the action steps that will need to be taken by various stakeholders in the economy and in government.  We have to move to the introduction of climate change legislation at some point in the term of this government.

President Zuma has inherited an economy that is in recession and it is his task to lead us out of it in way that makes us more resilient and better prepared to capitalize on long term growth. The response to climate change is an economic response and therefore it must be fully integrated into economic policy.

Like many other governments in the world it is clear that the South African government aims to stimulate demand by spending. Notwithstanding the likelihood that tax revenues will fall in the immediate period going forward and that government needs to act responsibly, President Zuma should consider spending in areas that will stimulate new green industries. Projects that promote energy efficiency appear to be on the agenda. But large capital projects like concentrated solar thermal deserve thorough consideration as well.

When investing in rural infrastructure and social relief programmes, President Zuma needs to make it clear that such spending will take into account the need to adapt to climate change. The promotion of small-scale agriculture, improving access to water, and “climate proofing” human settlements all need to take into account that the climate of today will not necessarily be the climate of tomorrow.

President Zuma also needs to take us into his confidence about how his government intends to approach the climate change negotiations in Copenhagen. We face the prospect of a new lead Minister, Buyelwa Sonjica, who has no history in these negotiations and is unlikely to understand the dynamics. I have been told by one senior civil servant of a G8 country that there is considerable consternation that Minister Van Schalkwyk will not be at Copenhagen. Despite his numerous faults, Van Schalkwyk knew the negotiation process well. He had established a rapport with other Ministers and he was regarded by many G8 countries as a bridge between the developed economies and the major emerging economies.

Minister Sonjica deserves her chance to show what she can do, and she has no doubt inherited the majority of the negotiating team that Van Schalkwyk had at his disposal, but I cannot shake the feeling that Sonjica’s explicit focus as Minister is going to be on water. It is obviously not a case of “either or”. Climate change and water are both important.

Will South Africa push the developed world to take up ambitious emission reduction targets? We don’t know because President Zuma does not think climate change is an important topic for State of the Nation address.

It is now the responsibility of Parliament to hold President Zuma to account for what he has said and what he has not said. I will certainly be asking questions on what his government will do tackle climate change. I hope other MPs will join me.

Gareth Morgan is the DA shadow Minister of Water and Environmental Affairs.